[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] 20251105

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Briefing]

Coking Coal Market:

The offer price for low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen is 1,610 yuan/mt. The offer price for low-sulphur coking coal in Tangshan is 1,620 yuan/mt.

Fundamentals for the raw material: Environmental and safety regulations are strict across various regions. Additionally, mainstream coal mines in Shandong recently received a stockpiling increase mandate from the provincial government, requiring total inventory to be raised to 3.3 million mt by November 15 (this reserve inventory must be maintained until approved for sale by the provincial government, typically after the following year's heating season ends). Coking coal supply is tightening, market sentiment is positive, with most online auctions concluding at premiums. Short-term coking coal prices are expected to continue rising.

Coke Market:         

The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench is 1,900 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench is 1,760 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench is 1,540 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench is 1,450 yuan/mt.

News-wise, mainstream steel mills have accepted the third round of coke price increases, effective from 00:00 on November 5, marking the official implementation of the third hike. Supply side, with the third round of increases implemented, coke plant profits have seen some recovery. However, with coking coal prices expected to rise, coke plant profits remain under pressure, potentially leading to expanded production restrictions. Demand side, some steel mills are incurring losses and may further implement maintenance plans. Nonetheless, some mills with low inventory still have restocking needs, supporting the execution of the third coke price increase. In summary, coke fundamentals are tight, and the coke market is expected to hold up well in the short term.[SMM Steel]